Joel Elconin

Being a big-time University of Michigan sports fan can create conflicts in your life.   For example, it severely limits the colors in my wardrobe as I do not want to resemble in anyway whatsoever, or promote the colors of any of my hated rivals.  Also, it can be a factor when handicapping other sporting events I closely follow such as the Kentucky Derby.

So you may be asking how does my allegiance to Michigan sports create a conflict for me in handicapping the Kentucky Derby?   Let me explain.  In the past, I have favored the winner of the Santa Anita Derby (especially if he is a long shot) as my choice for the Kentucky Derby.  And this year’s winner, Goldencents, is partially owned by none other than Rick Pitino, who just recently led his Louisville Cardinals to a hard fought victory over my Michigan Wolverines in this year’s NCAA Basketball Championship Finals.  So, do I sit out this year’s Derby and cheer for every other horse in the race? Or do I put my biases aside and rely on my handicapping skills?

Let’s examine the top contenders along with Goldencents to determine the appropriate betting strategy for the first leg of the Triple Crown.  More times than not, a winner from one of the major prep races before the Derby (Wood Memorial, Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby and Santa Anita Derby) will be the eventual winner.

The only horse entering the race with a perfect record is the winner of the Wood Memorial, Verrazano.  Being hailed as perhaps the next super-horse, the colt may go as the favorite.  In addition to his victory in the Wood Memorial, Verrazano galloped to victory by 3, 16 and 8 lengths in his three previous starts.  Veteran trainer Todd Pletcher (trainer of 2011 Derby winner Super Saver), will have the colt and jockey well prepared for the longer distance and large field.  However, being the favorite in the Derby is not always a good omen, as the chalk rarely wins the race.  In fact, going back to 1979 only five favorites have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby.  With that being said, I will use him in some combinations with some other long shots.

One of the four other stablemates of Verrazano, Overanalyze, was the winner of the Arkansas Derby.  Although he coasted to over a four length victory, very slow fractions on the front-end allowed him to do so.  In the 21 horse stampede at the Derby, it certainly will not be nearly as easy to weave and bob from way back in the pack and coast to victory.  The eventual winner will need to be in striking distance by the half and ready to mount a challenge.  Also, his past performance reveals a pattern of losing a race following each of his four victories.  Since his last race was a win in the Arkansas Derby, I am predicting the pattern to hold true to form.  Once again, I may use him as a candidate for some combinations.

Orb, the winner of the Florida Derby, is the other candidate to go off as the favorite.  He has dominated the horses at Gulfstream Park over his last three starts, coupled with his four wide move in the stretch to win the Florida Derby by almost three lengths is impressive.  Once again, he was aided by slow fractions on the front-end and had plenty of kick to make his stretch run.  More importantly, he has the most outside post (16) of all the major contenders and will have to expend some energy to get in good position for a final move.  This stands in stark contrast to his usual come from behind style.  Finally, being one of the potential favorites makes him a less attractive horse to wager on.

So where does over-analysis leave me?  With the Santa Anita Derby winner and partially Rick Pitino owned Goldencents.  After reviewing his race in the Santa Anita, his jockey was able to call on his horse for a move a few times, before heading home for a strong run in the stretch.  With the Kentucky Derby being a long and grueling race, especially with a large field, the winner will need to be near the front end of the race and then have enough kick to make a stretch run.  If Goldencents can get a similar trip to his mount in the Santa Anita Derby, he may be the next candidate to win the first Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978.